AGP Executive Report

Guzman y Gomez exits the US: The Australian fast-food chain has shut down all Chicago-area restaurants and is pulling out of the U.S. market, with closures also hitting other locations—another reminder that expansion bets can flip fast when demand and execution don’t line up. Food safety & kitchen scrutiny: Consumers keep asking what’s “cleaner” to cook with as microplastics concerns grow; silicone cookware is back in the spotlight, with the science still evolving. Climate pressure on food systems: A new AIIB $10bn facility is aimed at energy and food security shocks tied to West Asia conflict, while fresh research warns climate change could wipe out large shares of plant species—an upstream threat to agriculture. Australia-linked food culture: Vivid Sydney’s Food pillar is back with more than 200 events and a new Fire Kitchen home at Barangaroo, turning the city into a live tasting floor. Koalas under strain: EarthTalk reiterates the urgency—habitat loss and climate-driven bushfire risk are still pushing koala numbers down.

Guzman y Gomez exits the US: Australia’s burrito chain has shut all eight Chicago-area restaurants, citing poor sales and surging costs, and is pivoting to a bigger Australia push after flagging a US exit hit of up to US$40m. Health Star Ratings: Australia’s move to mandate front-of-pack nutrition stars is under fire to be “free of industry interference,” after voluntary uptake stalled at about 39% of products. Fertiliser shock from Hormuz: The EU is temporarily lifting duties on nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonia to blunt price spikes tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption—an agrifood warning sign for farmers. AI data centre backlash: NSW hearings heard calls to pause approvals over electricity and water use, with Sydney Water warning drinkable water demand could reach a quarter of the city’s supply by 2035. Food & safety pressure: Reports also spotlight food waste drivers from order mistakes and ongoing concerns around illicit alcohol and health impacts.

Mars Petcare Innovation Push: Mars Petcare has appointed an ANZ CCO and launched a Next Generation Pet Food Program, seeking startups with low-carbon materials for pet nutrition—especially alternative proteins, fats and novel ingredients—alongside partners including AAK, Bühler, Givaudan and Ingredion. Regenerative Medicine Meets Public Markets: Reno biotech Conexeu Sciences has debuted on Nasdaq with a regenerative-medicine platform aimed at helping the body rebuild tissue, signalling how “regenerate, not replace” is gaining investor attention. Food & Drink Product Momentum (Australia): The Hive Awards spotlight Aquafab as Best Beverage Product and Simson’s Pantry as Best NPD, while Aquafab continues expanding via 800+ venues and planned US/UK entry. Packaging That’s Easier to Recycle: AmPrima, a mono-PE shredded-cheese pack, is rolling out through Fonterra and claims to remove ~270 tonnes of non-recyclable material annually. Retail/Market Watch: Guzman y Gomez has exited the US and is refocusing on Australia growth, with the move driving a sharp share reaction.

US Exit Shock for Fast Food: Guzman y Gomez has pulled the plug on its US expansion, immediately shutting its Chicago restaurants after concluding the business won’t meet performance hurdles—an exit expected to cost about US$30–40m (up to US$56m) but not hit the final FY26 dividend, sending shares up sharply. ASX Mood Lifts: The ASX 200 is back near a 5-day high as miners lead a rebound, helped by easing oil prices and a softer jobs read that reduces pressure for further RBA tightening. Fuel-Crisis Pressure: With petrol costs still front of mind, Australians are backing an extension of the fuel excise cut after June 30 (87% in a reader poll), as the Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps volatility high. Food Policy Friction: A fresh commentary argues grocery price caps are being treated too lightly while costs keep rising—fuel, electricity, compliance and inspection charges among them. Global Spotlight: Meanwhile, Australian activists from the Gaza flotilla have been deported to Turkey after detention allegations and a widely condemned Israeli minister’s taunting video.

AI in the spotlight: Google has rolled out “Universal Cart” under its Universal Commerce Protocol, letting shoppers build a cart across Search, Gemini chats, YouTube and Gmail, then check out via Google Pay in a few taps—early adopters include Nike, Sephora, Walmart and Shopify. Food culture meets tech: The carnivore diet is shifting from a fringe trend to a mainstream “ethically sourced” and “regenerative” meat market, with rising demand for organ supplements, freeze-dried snacks and subscription boxes. Supply chain & safety: Australia’s food relief push continues to ramp up, with VIC funding for food relief and Mars expanding its Foodbank Australia support for 2026. Global watch: San Francisco launched an AI whale-detection network to cut ship strikes as gray whale deaths climb—another reminder that transport rules are tightening around risk. Markets context: NZ stocks lifted on Nvidia-fuelled optimism, while local trading was dominated by Contact Energy’s huge resumption after a block trade.

Forest-to-table NZ dining: Kylie Gillies visited Velskov, Auckland’s first modern native forest farm, where guests forage, cook over open fires and eat native-botanical dishes like the dairy-free “TUMM” breakfast. Avecho trial clock: Avecho says it has dosed the last participant in its phase III insomnia study; interim results are due in June, with hopes they’ll guide final trial size and licensing talks. Winter comfort + retail theatre: Julie Goodwin shared a creamy tarragon and mushroom chicken recipe for Sunrise, while Melbourne’s LaManna is hosting Bippi’s immersive “Nonna’s house” pop-up for six weeks. Coffee aisle innovation: Dare is launching iced coffee sachets (Espresso, Double Espresso, Mocha) into a new format from 25 May. Hospitality friction: Chefs are pushing back on group-booking surcharges creeping into Melbourne. Food relief ramps up: VIC is putting $8.5m into food relief, with Mars expanding its Foodbank supply program to deliver 16.1m meals by end-2026. Food waste spotlight: Queen Victoria Market and City of Melbourne are tackling surplus produce to support people facing food insecurity.

Humanitarian Funding: The UN and partners have launched a $710.5m appeal for Rohingya needs in Bangladesh, warning return hopes to Myanmar are fading fast and food is the biggest line item. Organic Meat Push: Bangladesh says it will export “organic meat” within three years, banking on high-protein, drought-tolerant grass feed research to cut production costs. Packaging Reform Pressure: Australia’s beverages industry is backing national packaging rules and a stronger EPR framework, arguing Middle East-linked supply shocks are exposing plastic-resin vulnerability. Red Meat Logistics: New Zealand’s Silver Fern Farms airfreighted 90 tonnes of chilled lamb and beef to Abu Dhabi to keep Middle East supply steady amid regional disruption. Food & Drink Spotlight: Ocean Spray is leaning into cranberry health positioning in China, while Australia’s non-alcoholic beverages market is forecast to keep climbing through 2034. Local Industry Moves: Arla is reported to be acquiring an Australian cottage cheese producer, and Singapore’s Gardenia is shifting bakery production to Malaysia with retrenchments.

Viticulture Focus: ASVO has extended registrations for its Viticulture Seminar in Mildura (26–27 May), with sessions on endurance and adaptation, smart pest and disease management (including tastings of disease-resistant varieties), investing in technology and shaping the future—aimed at helping growers build resilience. Food Safety Alert: Global Seafood Distributors’ Seafood Marinara Mix (500g) has been recalled after “foreign matter” was found—mussel shell fragments—prompting removal from shelves and refunds. Gin & G&T Buzz: Daylesford Spirit Distillery has won the inaugural Fever-Tree G&T Cup, kicking off Fever-Tree G&T Week (to 24 May). Alcohol Scrutiny: Spirits & Cocktails Australia is calling for urgent federal action after research flagged contaminated illicit vodka sold in Melbourne bottle shops. Industry Leadership: Mars Petcare has appointed P&G veteran Karim Lokhandwala as Chief Customer Officer for ANZ, overseeing sales for PEDIGREE, WHISKAS and DINE.

Cost-of-living pressure hits food support: The Salvation Army’s Red Shield Appeal is gearing up for 30–31 May, warning families are skipping meals and even delaying doctor visits as hardship deepens. Wellness in the air: Fiji Airways is rolling out its FlyWell program with Vital Red Light in-flight and in the Nadi Premier Lounge from 1 June. Hospitality expansion: Accor’s The Sebel Sydney Parramatta is set to open in August 2026, adding extended-stay suites in one of Western Sydney’s fastest-growing hubs. Live-event payments get an upgrade: Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena is rebranding to Afterpay Arena with a venue-wide payment system aimed at faster ticketing and spend. Food safety and supply chain watch: HSBC Vietnam has arranged an EFA-backed $31m loan for Nutifood Nutrition Food, while Hellers pork tender recalls continue to surface. Packaging and processing momentum: Multiple food-tech and packaging items dominated the week’s feed, alongside fresh investment news in frozen potato processing (Iscon Balaji Foods raising $215m).

Climate pressure on food and fire seasons: New research says summer conditions are lasting longer and becoming more abrupt, with extra heat stacking up and worsening drought, wildfire risk, energy demand and farming disruption. Farmers cut back wheat: With Iran-war fuel and fertiliser shocks plus dry weather, Australian farmers are planting less wheat and using less fertiliser, raising the odds of a smaller harvest and tighter global supply. Local food push gets a boost: A sardine-focused argument is gaining traction: more Australian sardines on plates could improve nutrition while easing emissions and supporting small fisheries. Hospitality resets for longevity: Some Sydney restaurants are “resetting” their concepts as costs bite and consumer tastes shift. Food safety spotlight: Vinnies says winter demand for food parcels and fuel vouchers is rising fast as households cut essentials. Ocean science, food relevance: Australia-linked Ocean Census work has identified 1,121 new marine species, underlining how much biodiversity could matter for future seafood and ecosystem health.

Regulatory Pressure (US): Public Citizen has filed a fresh supplemental petition urging the FDA to add an explicit pregnancy contraindication and stronger warnings for modafinil/armodafinil after a registry analysis found major congenital malformations at about 13% versus 3% in the general population. Food & Farming (Australia): Southern Cross University research is pushing a new rice breeding path aimed at cutting water use and emissions—an issue hitting irrigated rice regions like the Riverina. Pest Control (Australia): APVMA granted an emergency permit for stronger zinc phosphide mouse bait (50g/kg) to tackle severe mouse plagues in parts of WA and SA. Hospitality & Dining (UK, signals for F&B): A Michelin-trained chef in south Belfast has launched a health-led fast-food concept built around build-your-own bowls and whole ingredients. Trust & Localisation (APAC): A new analysis argues foreign brands are losing trust in APAC when they rely on “local theatre” instead of faster, culturally grounded decisions. Wine & Industry (Australia): Sydney Royal’s 200-year wine show symposium will pull back the curtain on how wines are assessed in the show system.

Fertiliser lifeline: Australia has secured about 90,000 tonnes of urea to protect planting decisions as global supply tightens, with Export Finance Australia arranging the first shipments alongside CSBP and Incitec Pivot. Festival food push: Vivid Sydney 2026 is expanding its Fire Kitchen at Barangaroo with more than 60 culinary voices and nightly open-fire cooking. Chinatown plans: Parramatta’s community has welcomed a proposed new Chinatown in the Western Sydney CBD, but says it must deliver real activation, not just a rebrand. Tobacco crackdown funding: More Commonwealth cash is heading to the fight against illicit tobacco, including data work and international obligations. Wine & tourism momentum: South Australia’s Michelin debut is driving a rush for bookings, while TRENZ 2026 returns to Auckland to supercharge travel trade links. Business pressure points: Regenxbio shares plunged despite positive DMD gene therapy data, showing how investor nerves remain raw.

Energy-cost squeeze on tomatoes: Italy’s Mutti says chopped tomato, passata and purée prices could rise if oil stays elevated, warning it’s paying about 50% more for energy and will decide after the July–September harvest. Supply-chain pressure: The wider backdrop is still volatile—China has halted sulphuric acid exports, a key input for batteries and fertiliser, raising cost risk for downstream manufacturers. Australia airport retail leadership: Airport Retail Group (Australia) has appointed Corey Law as Group General Manager, overseeing dining across Brisbane and Sydney airports as it pushes its next growth phase. Food culture & trends: In San Francisco, peptide “stacks” are becoming a mainstream wellness conversation—an echo of how quickly new health fads can move from niche to consumer demand. What’s missing: No major Australia-specific agrifood policy or supermarket pricing story landed in the latest hours beyond the energy and input-cost signals.

Food & Tourism Spotlight: Michelin’s Guide is coming to Australia, with inspectors already in South Australia and a full recommendations list expected in October—another big signal for local dining and wine tourism. Wine Industry Pressure: Australia’s wine sector is exploring whether surplus red wine could be turned into biofuel, as storage gluts meet a tough fuel environment. Cruise & Hospitality: Oceania Cruises has unveiled festive 2026–27 and 2027–28 holiday sailings, leaning hard into “culinary excellence” and seasonal dining at sea. Retail Friction: A supermarket worker’s “do you want your 5c back?” moment has sparked debate online—small change, big feelings. Climate & Food Risk (context): Coverage also flags El Niño intensifying and wildfire-season concerns, a reminder that heat and disruption can quickly ripple into supply chains. Local Food Culture: Sydney’s “canotto” cloud-crust pizza trend is making waves, while readers keep celebrating Australia’s cooking heritage via battered copies of Stephanie Alexander’s Cook’s Companion.

Food security & input shocks: Indonesia’s Prabowo says the country is “still okay” on food and energy resilience, while other nations—including Australia—are asking for help with fertiliser after Middle East disruption tightened global supply chains. Agri-policy pressure: Australia’s budget also doubled down on fuel and fertiliser security, but rural groups warn the bigger gaps remain in ongoing primary care, connectivity and safer country roads—issues that hit farm operations fast when systems tighten. Retail competition: Costco is pushing ahead with plans for up to 20 new Australian warehouses, with a key $74m Pakenham proposal facing a planning vote—another sign grocery pricing pressure is reshaping where shoppers buy. Health & exposure: Microplastics coverage keeps widening, with new reporting linking everyday plastic exposure to risks beyond the environment, including cardiovascular and reproductive concerns. Global commodity watch: Sugar trade remains dominated by Brazil, while wheat-focused investors are tracking how geopolitical supply shocks can outperform broad ag baskets.

Cost-of-living retail shake-up: Costco’s expansion plans are back in the spotlight, with a proposed $74m Pakenham warehouse facing a key $74m planning test in Melbourne’s outer southeast—promising 250 full-time jobs and hundreds more during construction, as shoppers chase cheaper groceries and fuel. Food waste policy pressure: Second Harvest is calling for modernised “best before” date labelling, arguing confusion drives avoidable waste and that Australia and other countries have already moved toward clearer, safety-focused systems. On-the-ground food culture: Michelin’s South Australia debut is heating up local diners, while “Meet Australia 2026” heads to Ho Chi Minh City next week to push trade links in agriculture and innovation. Sustainability & packaging: A push for easier plastic swaps is gaining traction, alongside broader scrutiny of how beauty packaging ends up in landfill. Water politics: NSW is fighting over a bill that could allow environmental water flows to inundate private property under the Murray-Darling Basin plan.